The United States experienced negative net migration in 2025 for the first time in at least half a century as a result of the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown, according to a report released Tuesday by the Brookings Institution.
Although the administration has undertaken aggressive removal efforts, the negative figure is primarily due to a significant drop in entries into the United States, the report said.
“We estimate net flows of -295,000 to -10,000 for the year,” the Brookings study states. “Although a high degree of political uncertainty remains, negative net migration is also likely to continue by 2026.”
The report attributed the change to the combination of a large drop in entries and an increase in police activity that led to deportations and voluntary departures.
The Trump administration’s suspension of many humanitarian programs – including most refugee programs except those involving white South Africans – and a decrease in temporary visas also contributed to negative net migration, according to the report.
The report’s authors estimate that there were between 310,000 and 315,000 deportations in 2025, a lower figure than the administration claims. Department of Homeland Security officials say more than 600,000 people have been deported so far during the crackdown.
“Expulsions in 2025, between 310,000 and 315,000, are not much higher than those of around 285,000 in 2024,” the report states.
U.S. Border Patrol teams monitor the border with Mexico for any illegal crossings in El Paso, Texas, on May 8, 2025.
Can Hasasu/Anadolu via Getty Images
Unlike 2024, most deportations in 2025 were initiated by U.S. Customs and Border Protection from inside the country, according to the report, rather than by Immigration and Customs Enforcement, even though the actions of some ICE officers dominate many news headlines.
A spokesperson for the Department of Homeland Security, which oversees CPB and ICE, did not immediately respond to a request for comment from ABC News.
The report’s authors also predicted that deportations will increase in 2026 with funding from President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill, which the report said “will likely allow for increased infrastructure and personnel to achieve a higher level of law enforcement.”
According to the report, officials also predict that the net loss of migration will cause certain sectors of the economy to experience “unexpectedly weak economic activity,” specifically businesses that serve affected immigrant populations.
“The slowdown implies weaker growth in employment, GDP and consumer spending,” the report states, adding that consumer spending is expected to fall by between $60 billion and $110 billion between 2025 and 2026.
